Strong approximations of level exceedences related to multiple hypothesis testing

Particularly in genomics, but also in other fields, it has become commonplace to undertake highly multiple Student's $t$-tests based on relatively small sample sizes. The literature on this topic is continually expanding, but the main approaches used to control the family-wise error rate and false discovery rate are still based on the assumption that the tests are independent. The independence condition is known to be false at the level of the joint distributions of the test statistics, but that does not necessarily mean, for the small significance levels involved in highly multiple hypothesis testing, that the assumption leads to major errors. In this paper, we give conditions under which the assumption of independence is valid. Specifically, we derive a strong approximation that closely links the level exceedences of a dependent ``studentized process'' to those of a process of independent random variables. Via this connection, it can be seen that in high-dimensional, low sample-size cases, provided the sample size diverges faster than the logarithm of the number of tests, the assumption of independent $t$-tests is often justified.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/09-BEJ220 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Exact convergence rate and leading term in central limit theorem for student's t statistic

The leading term in the normal approximation to the distribution of Student's t statistic is derived in a general setting, with the sole assumption being that the sampled distribution is in the domain of attraction of a normal law. The form of the leading term is shown to have its origin in the way in which extreme data influence properties of the Studentized sum. The leading-term approximation is used to give the exact rate of convergence in the central limit theorem up to order n⁻¹/², where n denotes sample size. It is proved that the exact rate uniformly on the whole real line is identical to the exact rate on sets of just three points. Moreover, the exact rate is identical to that for the non-Studentized sum when the latter is normalized for scale using a truncated form of variance, but when the corresponding truncated centering constant is omitted. Examples of characterizations of convergence rates are also given. It is shown that, in some instances, their validity uniformly on the whole real line is equivalent to their validity on just two symmetric points

Uniform convergence rates for a class of martingales with application in non-linear cointegrating regression

For a class of martingales, this paper provides a framework on the uniform consistency with broad applicability. The main condition imposed is only related to the conditional variance of the martingale, which holds true for stationary mixing time series, stationary iterated random function, Harris recurrent Markov chains and $I(1)$ processes with innovations being a linear process. Using the established results, this paper investigates the uniform convergence of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator in a non-linear cointegrating regression model. Our results not only provide sharp convergence rate, but also the optimal range for the uniform convergence to be held. This paper also considers the uniform upper and lower bound estimates for a functional of Harris recurrent Markov chain, which are of independent interests.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ482 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

A specification test for nonlinear nonstationary models

We provide a limit theory for a general class of kernel smoothed U-statistics that may be used for specification testing in time series regression with nonstationary data. The test framework allows for linear and nonlinear models with endogenous regressors that have autoregressive unit roots or near unit roots. The limit theory for the specification test depends on the self-intersection local time of a Gaussian process. A new weak convergence result is developed for certain partial sums of functions involving nonstationary time series that converges to the intersection local time process. This result is of independent interest and is useful in other applications. Simulations examine the finite sample performance of the test.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS975 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Asymptotic Theory for Local Time Density Estimation and Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression

We provide a new asymptotic theory for local time density estimation for a general class of functionals of integrated time series. This result provides a convenient basis for developing an asymptotic theory for nonparametric cointegrating regression and autoregression. Our treatment directly involves the density function of the processes under consideration and avoids Fourier integral representations and Markov process theory which have been used in earlier research on this type of problem. The approach provides results of wide applicability to important practical cases and involves rather simple derivations that should make the limit theory more accessible and useable in econometric applications. Our main result is applied to offer an alternative development of the asymptotic theory for non-parametric estimation of a non-linear cointegrating regression involving non-stationary time series. In place of the framework of null recurrent Markov chains as developed in recent work of Karlsen, Myklebust and Tjostheim (2007), the direct local time density argument used here more closely resembles conventional nonparametric arguments, making the conditions simpler and more easily verified.Brownian Local time, Cointegration, Integrated process, Local time density estimation, Nonlinear functionals, Nonparametric regression, Unit root

Cram\'{e}r-type large deviations for samples from a finite population

Cram\'{e}r-type large deviations for means of samples from a finite population are established under weak conditions. The results are comparable to results for the so-called self-normalized large deviation for independent random variables. Cram\'{e}r-type large deviations for the finite population Student $t$-statistic are also investigated.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001343 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression

Nonparametric estimation of a structural cointegrating regression model is studied. As in the standard linear cointegrating regression model, the regressor and the dependent variable are jointly dependent and contemporaneously correlated. In nonparametric estimation problems, joint dependence is known to be a major complication that affects identification, induces bias in conventional kernel estimates, and frequently leads to ill-posed inverse problems. In functional cointegrating regressions where the regressor is an integrated time series, it is shown here that inverse and ill-posed inverse problems do not arise. Remarkably, nonparametric kernel estimation of a structural nonparametric cointegrating regression is consistent and the limit distribution theory is mixed normal, giving simple useable asymptotics in practical work. The results provide a convenient basis for inference in structural nonparametric regression with nonstationary time series. The methods may be applied to a wide range of empirical models where functional estimation of cointegrating relations is required.Brownian Local time, Cointegration, Functional regression, Gaussian process, Integrated process, Kernel estimate, Nonlinear functional, Nonparametric regression, Structural estimation, Unit root